Dear President Buhari, welcome back from China

President Buhari, some venerate and others vili­fy your person, but there is this seeming unanimous ref­erence to you as baba. Of course, people need not to be linguists to know that “baba” is a Yoruba word that loosely translates into “father” (or “daddy” in our more localised parlance). You joined the rather long list of past lead­ers that were accorded this pres­tigious title that demands a lot of fatherliness from even re­tired soldiers, obviously to re­mind you that the battered child named Nigeria urgently needs the firm but lovely strokes of a father. I suspect a lot of people basked, in their childhood days, the euphoria that greets the re­turn of a mother from the mar­ket or that of a father from a trip especially an obodo oyibo (for­eign) trip. Maybe this partly ex­plains the mix of euphoria and scepticism in the land that greet­ed your return from the working visit to China.

 

Like hungry children eagerly awaiting their father’s return, we sat in front of our various infor­mation outlets to hear the good news of your return. Some re­joiced, others simply didn’t find enough reason to do same. Out came Garba Shehu, your articu­late Senior Special Assistant on Media and Publicity, announc­ing the content of the goody bag you brought for us, all the way from China. Sealed infrastruc­ture deals to the tune of over $6 Billion. That’s fantastic! The deals listed were such that would pos­itively impact key sectors of the economy including power, sol­id minerals, agriculture, housing and rail transportation.

 

Baba, we have seen similar agreements in times past, we just hope that these ones would not exist only on paper like others. Seeing the agreed $1 billion that will be invested in the develop­ment of a greenfield expressway for Abuja-Ibadan-Lagos reminds us of a deal with this same Chi­na to build three greenfield refin­eries in Lagos, Kogi and Bayelsa that was signed six years ago. The sealed deal never came to frui­tion, when you go to those fields today, you will agree with Simon Kolawole that those fields are still green. Of course baba, you need not dub this particular deal blue­field, brownfield or even white­field to suggest to us that things have changed, it’s just that that greenfield there evokes some memories, and they are not good ones. “History will not be repeat­ed”, “things have changed”, “it is no longer business as usual” your people will tell us as they quickly draw out comparisons between sixteen years and eleven months. We hope so.

 

China, Oh Peoples’ Republic of China. Baba, thank goodness you know them to be very frugal business people who will do any­thing to reap maximum benefits from any deal they go into. You vividly understand the risks the deals you struck with China ex­posed us to; from of our markets being flooded with substandard “Chineese” products to our la­bour market being flooded with their expatriates. If it is this Chi­na you know, except if they have “changed”, they will attempt to export all the manpower need­ed for these projects. You are well aware of their infamous attrib­ute of subjecting their employ­ees to terrible working condi­tions. Wait a minute! Thank God you finished that report on Chi­na’s currency manipulation for economic purposes before you agreed a currency swap deal with them. Baba, you knew that the best thing to do is not to en­tirely avoid the Chinese and their gifts. You did not even attempt to “change” them because you knew it will be futile, you sim­ply created backdoor clauses to those deals to slap them back into shape should they attempt to misbehave and devised strat­egies to technically defeat them should they go overboard.

 

Sai baba, despite your blunt refusal of loan offers, you came back with a lot of goodies in­cluding the currency swap deal the Central Bank of Nige­ria agreed in principle to enter into with People’s Bank of Chi­na. This deal, when effected will see China provide Nigeria a cer­tain amount of Yuan for a defi­nite period, at an agreed interest and exchange rates. The Central Bank will then formally allocate it to Commercial Banks and in­formally to Yuan vendors (black market) who will in turn make similar provisions to business­men who can then clear their balance of trade with China in Yuan. Baba before you returned with this good news, the usual thing is that Nigerian business­men who intend to transact with China will have to scramble for the US Dollar, meet their trade obligations with the dollar, and China then convert these Dollars to their local currency. In doing this, conversion, handling and other ancillary costs are incurred and there is no telling who bears these costs. When the swap deal gets implemented, we can direct­ly convert our Naira to Yuan and eliminate the activity of the mid­dleman – Dollar. Our trade vol­ume with China is currently at about $14 billion per annum. This move will reduce the de­mand on the Dollar by 14 bil­lion and ease off the pressure on Naira. Nice one!

 

Moreover, this deal has the po­tential of making Nigeria China’s clearing house for the whole of West Africa. Considering China’s trade volume with the region, this deal is sure a plus to our stag­gering economy. But all is not well yet baba especially when we look at your Government’s for­eign exchange policy. Your Gov­ernment under this same policy will attempt to “prioritise” Yuan the same way it does with dol­lar. This implies that she will de­cide who she will give her hard–earned Yuan to and who they will not give it to, apparently in an at­tempt to ensure that we don’t buy “toothpicks” with the money.

 

Baba, your import substi­tution policy is very apt and it should subsist, but the tool you have continued to use to sustain this policy is not the best. World over, the preeminent tool Gov­ernments use to regulate impor­tation is taxation. Baba, you may have a need to be reminded that import duties (and waivers) are used to either discourage or en­courage importation. Given, it is easier to control importation by placing restrictions on access to foreign exchange than the us­age of tax administration which requires a great deal of tactful­ness but you have used this lazy man’s approach and we have seen what it got us into. This again re­minds us that quick fixes have grave consequences. Baba, we know that you are in a haste to change Nigeria but quick fixes will change us in a manner that you yourself will find detestable.

 

Maybe you have not thought of it this way but what your Gov­ernment is doing with foreign ex­change is simply subsidizing it. Baba, your Government knows the real value of the Naira and the rate at which it is supposed to exchange with other curren­cies but she deliberately ignores in defiance. There is no need here to educate you on the bit­ing effects this has on our econo­my but before you apportion the blame to the last sixteen years, let me remind you that you can do things differently now than you did in the last nine months. If you do things differently, you will definitely get a different re­sult. Please, allow the naira to exchange at its real value (or something close to that) as you continue to work tirelessly to bring back its lost glory.

 

Baba if you allow your hard earned Yuan to be handled the way the dollar is presently han­dled, then you have on your own volition mismanaged that goody bag from China and messed up your own frantic efforts to change our situation. Maybe I should be bold to tell you that the best way to change Nige­ria is to change yourself. There are now several definitions of the change you propagate but we know the one you intend to bring about. Like Omojuwa rightly told you, intentions alone cannot fry plantain. We need to see this change and we need to see it now! Baba, welcome back from China.

 

Chima, a civil rights activist writes in from Nnewi, Anambra State via: chimachris2@gmail.com